Ukrainian dairy farmers are grappling with a dual challenge of maintaining high production volumes and soaring purchase prices for raw milk, resulting in a notable 5% monthly increase in prices during the autumn, as reported by industry analytical agency Infagro on December 5.
The current situation is characterized by a limited growth in cheese imports to Ukraine due to the ongoing blockade of the Ukrainian-Polish border. However, analysts anticipate that once this issue is resolved, the country may witness a surge in cheese imports from Poland and other European nations.
Infagro highlighted the significant impact of this scenario on production costs, leading cheese producers to implement a 5% monthly price hike since the fall’s outset.
Analysts caution that while such a strategy might have been viable in the absence of import possibilities, the imminent growth in imports, particularly from Poland, could render the practice unsustainable. Once imports resume, factories may find themselves with excess raw materials, even if prices decrease.
Infagro raises concerns about the potential necessity for Ukrainian cheese producers to curtail their output significantly in response to these challenges. Despite recent months seeing higher cheese production compared to the pre-war levels of 2021, the ongoing border blockade has limited imports.
“It is possible that next year, cheese producers will have to significantly reduce their output,” warns Infagro.
In a related development, Canada opened its market to Ukrainian milk and dairy products earlier in 2023, offering a potential avenue for Ukrainian businesses to diversify their exports. Additionally, Ukrainian businesses have been exporting dairy products to Albania since October, providing further opportunities for the country’s dairy industry to navigate challenges and explore new markets.